It’s panic stations already for Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs after 0-2 starts to AFL season 2022. Meanwhile, the coaching careers of Sam Mitchell and Craig McRae have got off to perfect starts.
AFL Betting Wrap
Favourites Winning: 5/9
Home Teams Winning: 5/9
Favourites Cover: 4/9
Home Teams Cover: 5/9
Total Points Over: 5/9
Average Total Score: 163.1
AFL Round 1 Betting Lessons
1. Scoring is dropping
As we touched on in last week’s betting lessons, scoring is historically up in Round 1 before progressively dropping down over the ensuing weeks.
Total Points (2016-2021)
| Round | Average Total Points | Total Points Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 174.0 | 41% |
| 2 | 170.6 | 50% |
| 3 | 168.8 | 57% |
| 4 | 158.8 | 69% |
Total Points (2022)
| Round | Average Total Points | Total Points Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 175.9 | 22% |
| 2 | 163.1 | 44% |
Total points were down by two whole goals in Round 2 and the number of games going under the total points line went from two to four.
Betseeker AFL betting tips followers were able to cash in on the North Melbourne v West Coast and Fremantle v St Kilda games, both of which fell well short of the total.
As seen in previous years, totals have continued to drop in previous years after higher scoring opening rounds. Look to attack large totals again this week, particularly in matches between sides that have struggled to score early in 2022.
2. Here come the Suns
The Suns were terrific against the reigning premiers on Saturday night and with even luck may have even pinched a win.
As we touched on last week, Champion Data’s expected scoring provides some interesting insights into each week’s results.
The metric creates a final score based on historical goal kicking accuracy and not on how well a team kicks in a particular game.
On their numbers, the Suns actually should have beaten Melbourne 77-75.
Led by midfield stars in Touk Miller and Matt Rowell, the Suns are much improved side in 2022.
Stuart Dew’s side look a great bet with a 13.5 point start this week against the flaky Giants.
3. Patty Cripps looks great, but…
The Carlton skipper has started 2022 like a house on fire and has been smashed in to $6.00 second favourite for the Brownlow.
We’re steering clear, however.
Players with a second genuine Brownlow threat tend to disappoint in the final count. Only two Brownlow medalists have won with a teammate finishing in the top 10 in the same season in the last decade. You can guarantee that Sam Walsh will find his way into more and more of the votes as the season goes on.
For this reason, we’d prefer to bet around Melbourne pair Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver too.
At around $8.00, 2020 winner Lachie Neale looks a great bet. He almost certainly has two three vote games already in the bag as Cripps does, and is likely to be in more winning teams as the season goes on.
Brisbane currently lack a genuine second Brownlow threat, unlike Carlton and Melbourne, leaving Neale to grab the majority of the Lions’ votes each week in winning games.
4. Don’t bank on the weather forecast
Up to 40mm of rain was projected for Sydney on Friday night. In the end, just 1mm hit before 11pm.
The Swans v Geelong forecast was hammered in from 160 to 142, only to rise back to 160 once the forecast rain didn’t arrive.
Totals in wet weather are typically brilliant betting opportunities, but only when the rain actually arrives!
