AFL Grand Final 2025 Tips – Norm Smith Medal Predictions

The Norm Smith Medal is always a hotly-contested award in the AFL Grand Final and a very popular betting market.

As always, Betseeker have you covered with picks for the biggest game of the year, including our Grand Final betting preview and same game multis.

Here is our look at the history of the award and our picks.

Norm Smith Medal Trends

Savvy punters can gain an edge by looking at how the Norm Smith Medal has historically been awarded. Here are the key takeaways:

1. Back the mids

Like most major AFL awards, the Norm Smith has been dominated by midfielders. Six of the last seven winners have come from the engine room, with Bobby Hill in 2023 the only exception. Since 2000, 17 of 26 medals have gone to mids.

2. Experience matters

While Will Ashcroft and Hill have broken the mould recently, history favours seasoned players. Only seven of the last 26 winners had played fewer than 100 games: Judd (2005), Johnson (2007), Pendlebury (2010), Johannisen (2016), Hill (2023) and Ashcroft (2024). Judd remains the youngest winner this century at 21.

3. Beware the talls

Since the medal’s introduction in 1979, just two players taller than 192cm have won — Brian Lake in 2015 and Simon Madden way back in 1985.

4. Hit the scoreboard

A goal can go a long way. The last six winners all kicked at least one, and since 2000 only six medalists failed to hit the scoreboard.

5. Winners get medals

It’s rare for the Norm to go to a player in the losing side. Only four times since 1979 has that happened, with Judd in 2005 the most recent. If you’re backing a team to win, that’s usually where the Norm Smith comes from.

6. Roughies can salute

The last three winners all started at $21 or longer, showing there’s value in the outsiders. Notable big-priced winners include Ashcroft ($21), Hill ($101), Isaac Smith ($51), Jason Johannisen ($41) and Lake ($101).

Norm Smith Medal Tips

Geelong

Max Holmes

Norm Smith Medal

$9.00

Goal-kicking mids are the profile, so the top three in the market — Smith, Dangerfield and Holmes — are hard to overlook for Geelong, especially as Brisbane generally don’t tag.

We’re giving the edge to Holmes. He’s been Geelong’s best mid across their three clashes with Brisbane this year, picking up seven coaches votes, while Baz and Danger have polled none, and has been a more consistent goal-kicker than Smith in 2025.

Shaun Mannagh

Norm Smith Medal

$34

Mature recruit Shaun Mannagh knows how to deliver on the big stage, having kicked six in the 2023 VFL Grand Final to claim best on ground. He’s also kicked 2+ in four of his last five games and looks a value play at the price.

Brisbane

Will Ashcroft

Norm Smith Medal

$13

If you like Brisbane, Will Ashcroft is a huge chance to become just the third back-to-back Norm Smith Medal winner. He’s a goal-kicking mid and won’t attract the same attention as Hugh McCluggage, who looks set to be shadowed by Oisin Mullin again.

Kai Lohmann

Norm Smith Medal

$67

Kai Lohmann lit up last year’s decider, booting four goals and even attracting a Norm Smith vote. He’s kicked 2+ in four of his last five games and looms as a lively roughie for the Lions.

Previous AFL Norm Smith Medal Winners