AFL Grand Final 2023 Tips – Norm Smith Medal Predictions

The Norm Smith Medal is given to the player judged best on ground in the Grand Final and is always a hotly debated award, as well as providing plenty of opportunity from a punting perspective. Here are our picks for the Norm Smith Medal in the 2023 AFL Grand Final.

Norm Smith Medal History

Punters can absolutely get a leg up on the bookies with a quick look at how the Norm Smith Medal has been awarded previously.

1. Back the mids

Like every other major AFL award, the midfielders have dominated the Norm Smith Medal, particularly in recent years. The last six awards have gone to mids – including three to Richmond star Dustin Martin – as well as 16 of the 24 this century.

2. Experience counts

Since 2000, only 4 of the 24 Norm Smith Medalists had played fewer than 100 games prior to winning the award – Chris Judd (2004), Steve Johnson (2007), Scott Pendlebury (2010) and Jason Johannisen (2016). Judd was also the youngest winner this century at 21 years old.

3. Avoid the talls

The Norm Smith Medal has been awarded in every Grand Final since 1979. Remarkably, just two award winners have been taller than 192cm in that time – Brian Lake in 2015 and Simon Madden all the way back in 1985.

4. Hit the scoreboard

A player’s Norm Smith Medal chances increase if they are able to jag a goal in the Grand Final. The last five winners have all kicked a snag and since 2000, just 6 of 24 have not kicked a goal. Isaac Smith’s three goals last year certainly caught the eye of the judges.

5. Winners get medals

Obviously the winning team is much more likely to produce the best player on the ground, so if you are leaning toward one team to win, it’s probably where your should be putting your hard-earned for the Norm. Only four players since 1979 have won the award in a losing team.

Norm Smith Medal Tips

With a goal-kicking experienced midfielder from the winning team the profile for a Norm Smith Medalist, let’s look at a few tips for this year’s award.

Collingwood

Jordan De Goey

Norm Smith Medal

$5.50

De Goey was enormous in the Pies win over the Giants last week and he is one of just a couple of Pies mids who consistently hit the scoreboard as well. If the Pies are to win, they have to get a big game from De Goey.

Scott Pendlebury

Norm Smith Medal

$21

Former captain Pendlebury would be a very popular winner of the medal and the award is in no small part a popularity contest. He’s played well in both of the Pies games against the Lions this season, arguably the side’s best with 31 disposals including 12 clearances and a goal in Round 24. It would be a fairytale win 13 years after his first Norm Smith Medal.

Josh Daicos

Norm Smith Medal

$21

The ‘other’ Daicos brother has not been shooting the lights out of late but he does meet the right profile for the award, and a free, fast flowing game would suit his hard running style. He also has the ability to hit the scoreboard, with 16 goals in 2023. He’s had 25 or more disposals in 15 games this year, more than 30 in six.

Brisbane

Hugh McCluggage

Norm Smith Medal

$12

With Lachie Neale having been the fortunate recipient of another medal earlier in the week he will have to play the game of his life if he is to double up. That brings McCluggage firmly into play. He hits the scoreboard more often than Neale or Josh Dunkley, and was arguably best on ground in the Lions Qualifying Final win over Port Adelaide.

Charlie Cameron

Norm Smith Medal

$19

Cameron doesn’t fit the traditional mould of Norm Smith Medallists but few players are capable of breaking open a game like he is. Importantly, he has excellent form against the Pies with bags of four and six this season. Cyril Rioli won the medal as a small forward in 2015 as did Steve Johnson in 2007.

Keidean Coleman

Norm Smith Medal

$41

Coleman doesn’t fit the mould either but he comes into this game off a career best performance in the Preliminary Final against Carlton which should help build awareness of his ability in the judges eyes. Jason Johannisen won the Norm Smith playing off a back flank in 2016.

Previous AFL Norm Smith Medal Winners