The AFL is Australia’s biggest sporting code and a tremendous betting sport. Here are ten tips to sharpen up your AFL betting.
Be sure to check out Betseeker’s AFL tips for predictions and same game multis for each match of AFL season 2024.
AFL Betting Tips
1. The AFL is a Very Even League
In 2021, no team finished with a percentage (total points scored for every 100 by the opposition) greater than 133, with no team less than 70.3. This makes it far more competitive than most major sporting competitions around the world.
2. Think Overs in Round 1
Overs have hit at a 59% rate going back to 2012. Often Round 1 can be high scoring before teams work on their defensive systems and bookmakers adjust. Weather tends to be good as well early in the season. Six out of nine games went over in Round 1 2021.
3. Home Ground Advantage is All Important for Some Teams
As of the start of the 2022 season, West Coast had an all time winning percentage of 70.37% at home, compared to 44.74% away. Interestingly, they have been an awful bet against the number as home underdogs, covering at only a 27% rate in the last decade.
4. Know your Grounds
AFL games are played on grounds that can be vastly different. This can include factors such as shape, dome, and weather. Dew can be a factor as well as rain. Night games at Metricon Stadium, which is notorious for dew, go under at a rate of 62%.
5. Don’t Forget to Check the Forecast!
Games played in wet conditions went under the total at a rate of 71% in the last decade. Lines, and particularly totals, can move significantly during the week as a result of weather.
6. The Importance of Injuries is Highly Subjective
With 18 players on the field at any one time, as good as one player might be, playing without any one player is far less significant than (for example) an NFL team playing without their starting quarterback, or the Bulls without Michael Jordan.
7. It All Starts in the Middle
Who wins the midfield battle is often the determining factor in the outcome of a game. Contested possessions and clearances are the key statistics to measure the strength of a midfield.
8. Coaching is Vital, but the AFL Isn’t a Game Plan Specific League
Teams have certain ways of playing, and this does not change heavily week to week. The introduction of mandatory starting positions in 2019 (the 6-6-6- rule) means that most teams structure in a fairly similar way.
9. Time of Day Can Be Important
Night games have a very strong record of going under the total. From 2012 to 2021 almost 58% of games played at night went under the total, and that number was even higher in games not under a dome.
10. Perceptions Can Be Hard to Change
North Melbourne failed to cover in five of their first six games in 2021, but went 13-3 after that. Despite winning the wooden spoon, they covered at a 64% rate, the best in the league.
